Falling activity in production, and personal consumption and housing were to blame for the weaker activity at the start of 2025
America’s economic activity lost pace at the start of the year, according to a monthly index set out Monday.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index declined to minus 0.03 in January from 0.18 in December, according to new and revised figures. The reading below zero suggests growth lagged the long-term average.
Falling activity in production, and personal consumption and housing were to blame for the weaker activity at the start of 2025, the figures showed. By contrast, employment-related indicators gained steam, suggesting the jobs market remains robust.
The index’s three-month moving average by contrast increased to 0.03 in January from minus 0.13 in December. The CFNAI diffusion index—which captures how much the change in the monthly index is spread among the indicators over three months—similarly increased, reaching 0.10 from minus 0.07 a month earlier. Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI diffusion index above minus 0.35.
Source: wsj.com
